Stephen Whittaker, joint chief investment officer and manager of the New Star UK Growth and New Star Equity Income funds, said: ‘Corrections are a natural and, more importantly, healthy aspect of equity markets. Shakeouts remind investors to price risk accordingly and not to presume that the stock market is a one-way bet.
‘The last time investors were unnerved was back in May last year when inflation and growth concerns conspired to knock confidence. As then, markets had been on a prolonged bull run and investors were beginning to become unhealthily complacent. The fact we have gone nearly eight months without any serious falls has only served to heighten the shock of the recent setback.
‘The events of last year are a useful reminder that it rarely pays to try and time the market. Anyone who panicked and sold in the month long correction between mid-May to mid-June of last summer would have missed out on some attractive gains.
‘By the end of 2006 the total return index was up 16.8% from the start of the year so riding out the fall rewarded investors over the longer term.
‘If anything, the economic and corporate background today is more supportive than last summer. The market has managed to survive a high oil price, a slowdown in the US housing market and higher interest rates.
‘We are currently in a phase where the US housing market is showing signs of recovery, oil is cheaper and central banks have rebuilt their monetary arsenals should the economy need assistance from lower interest rates.
‘The big unknown is Iran but the impact of global politics on equity markets is almost impossible to predict, however, it is worth remembering that the last time the US waded into the Middle East in 2003, it actually marked the start of an equity rally.
‘We may see a little volatility in 2007; however, I foresee no reason why the equity market cannot finish the year in positive territory probably near the 7,000 mark.’
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Research by Simon Ward, global strategist, at New Star, highlights an interesting historical trend for FTSE 100.
Ward says: ‘The market downturn of the past couple of days is most likely to be a healthy correction in a longer term .
‘The research examined the performance of the FTSE 100 following the three great bear markets of the twentieth century (1929-1932, 1936-1940 and 1972-1974), and applied their trends to the rally following the recent bear market of 2000-2003.
‘Remarkably, the current recovery, from March 2003 to February 2007, mirrors very closely that of the average of the ‘three bears’ of the twentieth century.
‘The market has continually corrected to the forecast when it has got ahead of itself, as was the case in May 2006 (enlarge the graph, right).
‘By 20 February 2007, the FTSE 100 had climbed above the forecast once again which indicates the recent market falls are more likely to be a correction than a longer term bear market trend.’
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Dominic Rossi, head of global at Threadneedle, says: ‘The stock market falls over the past two days have been dramatic and have certainly grabbed investor attention. However, the losses have effectively just cancelled out gains made in the first two months of the year, with most major markets now back to their end-December levels.
‘Nothing has happened over the past 48 hours that affects our view of the world and the positive outlook for equity markets. The falls are not a reaction to any economic event. Indeed, a bout of investor jitters in China will not affect economic conditions or monetary policy.
‘In short, the backdrop remains favourable. Growth is robust and a lack of inflationary pressures prevents the need for substantial monetary tightening.
‘In recent weeks, equity market volatility had fallen close to all-time low levels and credit spreads were also approaching historic lows. From such a tight technical position, there was always a risk of a short, sharp correction. During any bull market, even the smallest incident can trigger a correction.
‘In this case, it was triggered by a widening of credit spreads in the US sub-prime mortgage market and a sharp sell off on the Shanghai stock exchange, which was prompted by liquidity reduction measures by the Chinese authorities. The domino effect of equity market selling has been exacerbated by hedge fund activity, whose ability to influence markets should not be underestimated.
‘We believe the falls represent nothing more than a temporary repricing of risk and that investors will begin to refocus on positive fundamentals in the very near future. Investors must accept that, during any bull market, they will have to bear these short sharp shocks as a reminder that equity investment is not a one-way bet.
‘Our positive view of equity markets is unaltered and we have been taking advantage of the falls by increasing exposure to favoured stocks at more attractive valuations.’
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Mark Williams, manager of the F&C Pacfic Growth , says: ‘The important point to note from the falls triggered by the events in China is that they are not a reflection of any change in economic fundamentals, as the underpinings of Asian growth and earnings are largely intact.
‘The long-term growth story for China and the wider Pacific Basin taking a greater share of the global economic pot also remains intact. In the shorter-term though investors will be closely analysing any comments from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on the potential for further rate hikes, market calming measures and the impact of ‘hot money’.
‘Equally, the subject matter of next month’s National People’s Congress meeting could impact short-term market sentiment, particularly any discussion on and market cooling measures. From the Fund’s perspective, the ongoing moves towards domestically focused companies in China and the wider region looks timely indeed.’
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John Kelly, head of client investment at Abbey, says: ‘The trigger for these events is as ever more complex than the simple event of weakness in the Chinese market.
‘More important has been a series of indicators from the US which have been indicative of a slowdown in economic growth. These include a reduced pace of profits expansion (but still at 10% per annum during the fourth quarter of 2006), a fall in the growth rate of capital investment and signs of problems at the ’sub-prime’ end of the mortgage industry. Together these are being read as a sign of a maturing economic environment and this has caused a number of short-term investors to take profits.
STRONG SUPPORT: Kelly says markets are not over-valued
‘Because of the way international markets operate, this rush for the door can generate a disproportionate market impact as each competes to be the first to trade.
‘Our view on the US economy has not changed as a result of this economic news, nor has our expectation for the US market. We expect the US economy to continue to grow, but at a slower pace. Company profits will go up, but not at a 10% plus pace. As US growth slows, we expect other economies to take up some of the slack and help push the global economy along. Europe is doing better, Japan is picking up momentum and growth is very strong in China and India remember China is now the fourth largest economy in the world, only the US, Japan and Germany are larger.
‘This growth and the rising profits it will generate will support stock markets. Despite the strength we have seen over the past few years, these are not overvalued. Good value however is not proof against profit-taking or bouts of weak sentiment such as we are experiencing now.
‘Over the medium term, pull backs such as this are healthy. They shake out the weak holders and bring share prices down to levels where there are bargains to be had. Often, they are very short lived, lasting weeks not months, but this period can test the nerves of investors made anxious by the shallow, headline-based coverage in much of the press and television news.
‘Our investment strategies are very carefully put together to work over time. Investors should not panic away from them because of some unsettling short-term developments.’
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